September 26, 2017

Seasonal Outlook: The Weather Company Predicts A Warm Start to Fall, Followed by a Cool Down in the U.S.

Warm October in Most Locations, But Below-Normal Temperatures Parts of Eastern US November-December

ANDOVER, Mass. (September 26, 2017) — In its latest U.S. seasonal forecast for the October-December period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the central half of the country, with below-normal temperatures across the East Coast and Pacific Northwest. The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected in the Southwest. (The Weather Company seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal [1981-2010].)

“A new La Nina event continues to emerge quickly as we head into the fall season,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. “As is typical in emerging La Nina events, we expect a warm October across most of the eastern U.S., resulting in a slow start to the heating demand season. By later in the fall, we expect the pattern to drive cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern U.S., with these below-normal temperatures becoming more widespread in December.”


  • Northeast – Warmer than normal
  • Southeast – Cooler than normal
  • North Central – Warmer than normal
  • South Central – Near normal
  • Northwest – Cooler than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

“With storage injections making up some ground in September, the key going forward will be how the winter projections look early in the season,” said Jeff Richter, principal at EnergyGPS. “October will see plenty of coal outages across the country, but with the warmer-than-normal temperatures painted across the Northeast, North Central, and Southwest, the power demand will not stretch the grid.”


  • Northeast – Slightly colder than normal
  • Southeast – Warmer than normal
  • North Central – Warmer than normal
  • South Central – Warmer than normal
  • Northwest – Slightly colder than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

According to Richter, “The Northeast is the key region to watch throughout October as November is showing slightly colder-than-normal temperatures. If October ends up colder than expected, the market will take this as a bullish signal of what is to come. We have not seen a cold start to the winter season for a couple of years, so if this projection slides to the colder side ever so slightly, the winter strip will be supportive.”


  • Northeast – Colder than normal
  • Southeast – Colder than normal
  • North Central – Colder than normal
  • South Central – Warmer than normal
  • Northwest – Colder than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

“Colder-than-normal conditions in the Northeast and Midwest will push up the residential commercial demand throughout the Lower 48,” said Richter. “As stated above, the colder start to winter will be something to which the market will not be accustomed. If production does not hit its marks over the next 2 months, the grid will be a lot tighter year on year given the current outlook and rescom numbers.”

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. The Weather Company will issue its next seasonal outlook, including an updated at the winter forecast, on October 24.


The Weather Company, an IBM Business

The Weather Company helps people make informed decisions and take action in the face of weather. The company offers the most accurate forecasts globally with personalized and actionable weather data and insights to millions of consumers, as well as thousands of marketers and businesses via Weather’s API, its business solutions division (, and its own digital products from The Weather Channel ( and Weather Underground (

The company delivers around 25 billion forecasts daily. Its products include the world’s most downloaded weather app, a network of 250,000 personal weather stations, a top-20 U.S. website, one of the world’s largest IoT data platforms, and industry-leading business solutions. Weather Means Business™. The world’s biggest brands in aviation, energy, insurance, media and government rely on The Weather Company for data, technology platforms and services to help improve decision-making and respond to weather’s impact on business. For more, visit

Media Contact: Lea Armstrong, The Weather Company,