Newsroom

News

August 22, 2017

Seasonal Outlook: The Weather Company Predicts Western U.S. Summer Warmth to Persist into Fall with Cooler Northeast Temperatures

ANDOVER, Mass. (August 22, 2017) — In its latest U.S. seasonal forecast for the September-November period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures for most of the country, with below-normal temperatures combined for most of the northeast quarter of the country. The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected in the Southwest. (The Weather Company seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal [1981-2010].)

“Cooler changes have been made to the fall forecast in the eastern U.S. based on abrupt changes in model forecasts, driven by a quick cessation of any glimpses of hope for El Nino and a trend towards La Nina conditions heading into heating season,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. “These cooler changes are especially noteworthy in September, as we now expect the cooler August pattern in the eastern/central U.S. to persist. While it’s still too early to have any confidence in a winter forecast, climate model forecasts suggest another mild winter. However, there are enough changes relative to last year and some reasonable resemblance to 2014, when the eastern U.S. experienced considerable stretches of cold weather, to be concerned about a colder solution.”

September

  • Northeast – Slightly warmer than normal
  • Southeast – Cooler than normal
  • North Central – Cooler than normal
  • South Central – Cooler than normal
  • Northwest – Warmer than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

“The West is the only region in the Lower 48 that has actually has any extreme heat this summer, and it looks to be sticking around into September,” said Jeff Richter, principal at EnergyGPS. “East of the Mississippi River is showing nothing but moderate weather with the central regions cooler than normal while the Northeast will offset the Southeast.”

October

  • Northeast – Cooler than normal north, warmer south
  • Southeast – Cooler than normal
  • North Central – Warmer than normal
  • South Central – Warmer than normal
  • Northwest – Warmer than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

According to Richter, “October is typically a month where thermal outages have an impact on the overall implied heat rates across most of the power regions. In the old days, more gas would be consumed from a power burn perspective because of nuclear and coal units going offline for planned maintenance.  These days the focus is on the renewable sector and how it is impacting the displacement of natural gas.  Last spring, we saw two things occur that were bearish: new capacity hit the grid in California, ERCOT, and SPP, and the overall capacity factor increased over 10% in some cases. This was due to the unique jet stream that formed in the central third of the country. At the end of the day, the new capacity along with a higher capacity factor put more megawatts on the grid and ultimately displaced the natural gas fired generation that usually sits on the margin in those regions.”

November

  • Northeast – Colder than normal
  • Southeast – Warmer than normal
  • North Central – Warmer than normal
  • South Central – Warmer than normal
  • Northwest – Warmer than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

“With 5 out of the 6 regions continuing to show warmer than normal, the forward curve will be hard-pressed to get off the ground  In fact, we would need the opposite weather for everyone to get excited to the upside. The things we will be watching closely throughout the fall and into the early part winter is just how tight the market will be with demand showing up in the form of liquid natural gas (LNG) and Mexican exports. It is all going to boil down to the production numbers as well as any pipeline expansions that can get cheaper gas to the regions holding all the demand cards.”

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. The Weather Company will issue its next seasonal outlook, including the first official look at winter, on September 26.

###

The Weather Company, an IBM Business

The Weather Company helps people make informed decisions and take action in the face of weather. The company offers the most accurate forecasts globally with personalized and actionable weather data and insights to millions of consumers, as well as thousands of marketers and businesses via Weather’s API, its business solutions division (business.weather.com), and its own digital products from The Weather Channel (weather.com) and Weather Underground (wunderground.com).

The company delivers around 25 billion forecasts daily. Its products include the world’s most downloaded weather app, a network of 250,000 personal weather stations, a top-20 U.S. website, one of the world’s largest IoT data platforms, and industry-leading business solutions. Weather Means Business™. The world’s biggest brands in aviation, energy, insurance, media and government rely on The Weather Company for data, technology platforms and services to help improve decision-making and respond to weather’s impact on business. For more, visit theweathercompany.com.

 

Media Contacts: Lea Armstrong, The Weather Company, lea.armstrong@weather.com