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April 26, 2017

Seasonal Outlook: The Weather Company Expects Warm Late Spring; Early Summer Pattern in Eastern U.S. to Fade Towards Late Summer

ANDOVER, Mass. (April 28, 2017) — In its latest U.S. seasonal forecast for the May-July period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, predicts warmer-than-normal temperatures across most of the country, with the exception of parts of the north-central U.S. The largest positive temperature anomalies are expected in the Pacific coastal states. (The Weather Company seasonal outlooks reference a standard 30-year normal [1981-2010]).

“After a sharp reversal in March towards colder Northeast U.S. temperatures, the atmosphere has reverted back towards the old persistent pattern of widespread above-normal temperatures across the eastern two-thirds of the U.S., with any below-normal temperatures limited to the Pacific Northwest” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at The Weather Company. “As the forcing from the winter La Nina pattern continues to wane, we feel that more frequent El Nino patterns will occur on sub-seasonal time scales, which will help advance a change in base state that will eventually favor cooler-than-normal summer temperatures across the northeastern quarter of the country by mid-to-late summer. While we feel reasonably confident that the change in base state towards El Nino conditions will occur over the next few months, there is clearly uncertainty in how fast that happens. A slower evolution will mean a hotter summer across the eastern U.S. and a faster change will likely result in cooler temperatures.”

May

  • Northeast – Warmer than normal
  • Southeast – Warmer than normal
  • North Central – Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west
  • South Central – Warmer than normal
  • Northwest – Cooler than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

“May is going to be all about production and power burns, but not necessarily in that order,” said Jeff Richter, principal at EnergyGPS. “The coal-to-gas ratio in the back half of April has indicated coal is the preferred source of power across the country, hence we are seeing power burns well below the levels of the last two years. Production is not the catalyst, but will still be important as we move closer to Q3.”

June

  • Northeast – Warmer than normal
  • Southeast – Warmer than normal
  • North Central – Cooler than normal
  • South Central – Warmer than normal
  • Northwest – Warmer than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

According to Richter, “Warmer-than-normal weather is going to be key to pushing the power demand to an inflection point where natural gas units are needed to balance the grid. We saw this last year and with the current forecast, we will be in position for a similar scenario.”

July

  • Northeast – Slightly cooler than normal
  • Southeast – Warmer than normal
  • North Central – Slightly cooler than normal
  • South Central – Warmer than normal
  • Northwest – Warmer than normal
  • Southwest – Warmer than normal

“By July, we will have a better understanding of the power burn component, which means our attention will be back over to production,” said Richter. “The demand from Sabine LNG Train 4 will be on the front burner as well as Mexican exports. We expect both demand components to be higher than where they are currently. All eyes will be on the South Central region where the current July forecast has the region warmer than normal.”

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. The Weather Company will issue its next seasonal outlook on May 22.

 

The Weather Company, an IBM Business

The Weather Company, an IBM Business, helps people make informed decisions and take action in the face of weather. The company offers the most accurate, personalized, and actionable weather data and insights to millions of consumers, as well as thousands of marketers and businesses via Weather’s API, its business solutions division, and its own digital products from The Weather Channel (weather.com) and Weather Underground (wunderground.com).

The company delivers tens of billions of forecasts daily. Its products include a top weather app on all major mobile platforms globally, a network of 250,000 personal weather stations, a top-20 U.S. website, one of the world’s largest IoT data platforms, and industry-leading business solutions.

Weather Means Business™. The world’s biggest brands in aviation, energy, insurance, media, and government rely on The Weather Company for data, technology platforms and services to help improve decision-making and respond to weather’s impact on business. For more, visit theweathercompany.com.

Media Contacts: Lea Armstrong, lea.armstrong@weather.com