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January 20, 2017

Seasonal Outlook: The Weather Company Predicts Unusually Mild Weather for Early February in Europe

Warm/Wet/Windy/Westerly Flow to Become Established Across North Atlantic Again

Andover, MA, 23 January 2017 — For the aggregate February-April period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting above-normal temperatures across most of Europe and western Russia, with the exception of Iberia and the U.K. The relative warmth will be most anomalous across Scandinavia and northwestern Russia.

“As has been the case since October, the bulk of the cold has been east-focused in January, with southeastern Europe getting the worst of it with extreme cold and very heavy snows,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist with The Weather Company. “We expect that the evolving subseasonal signal should allow for warming/drying across southern Europe as we head into early February, with the strong westerly North Atlantic flow shifting the focus of the wet weather to the U.K. and Scandinavia for at least a couple of weeks. We continue to watch the stratosphere for signs of a polar vortex breakdown that might increase the odds of colder weather across western Europe but simply aren’t seeing anything too get excited about at this time.”

For the February-April 2017 period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

February

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal, especially south/west
  • U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

March

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Slightly colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

April

  • Nordic region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Slightly colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal far west

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. The Weather Company will issue its next seasonal outlook on 21 February.