November 21, 2016

The Weather Company: Unusual Early Season Cold A Sign of Further Wintry Conditions

European Winter Now Looks Colder than Originally Expected

For the aggregate December–February period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting below-normal temperatures across all of Scandinavia and the northern half of Europe, with above-normal conditions confined to more southern latitudes.

“The colder pattern that started in October has persisted into November, this is a fairly clear sign that our original ideas for this winter were a bit off base,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Company. “It is clear that the polar vortex is weaker than we originally expected and that more blocking is likely going forward, especially in the Eurasian sector. Given this, along with the continued colder-looking model guidance for December, we have made significant colder changes to our forecast. Because of the weak stratospheric polar vortex, there is also an increasingly good change of a sudden stratospheric warming sometime within the next 4–6 weeks that would ramp up the cold risks later in the winter.”

For the December 2016 to February 2017 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

December Forecast by Region

  • Nordic Region* – Colder than normal
  • U.K.* – Slightly warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland* – Colder than normal east, warmer than normal west
  • Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

January Forecast by Region

  • Nordic Region – Slightly warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Slightly colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Colder than normal

February Forecast by Region

  • Nordic Region – Colder than normal
  • U.K. – Colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader Web site. The Weather Company will issue its next seasonal outlook on 19 December 2016.