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October 24, 2016

Colder/Drier Winter than Last 3 Years in Western Europe

More Intra-Seasonal Variability Expected, but Averaging Slightly Warmer than Normal

For the upcoming November–January period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business, is forecasting slightly above normal temperatures across the United Kingdom and Western Europe, with more substantial positive temperature anomalies expected across eastern Europe.

“The colder weather in October, driven by a strong Scandinavian blocking ridge, is not necessarily a sign of things to come this winter,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist, The Weather Company. “We are monitoring this blocking pattern, and if it remains through November, it could indicate a weakened polar vortex that persists through winter, resulting in an increased risk of colder weather for Europe. For now, we are hesitant to embrace the idea of an unusually cold winter, but we do expect abundant intra-seasonal variability that will provide more spells of cold weather than we’ve seen in the last three winters across western Europe. All evidence suggests another unusually mild winter across eastern Europe.”

November Forecast by Region

  • Nordic Region* – Warmer than normal west, colder than normal east
  • U.K.* – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland* – Colder than normal
  • Southern Mainland* – Warmer than normal

December Forecast by Region

  • Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal west

January Forecast by Region

  • Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
  • U.K. – Slightly warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland – Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland – Warmer than normal east, colder than normal west

The Weather Company provides customized weather information to global commodity traders via its industry-leading WSI Trader website. The Weather Company will issue its next seasonal outlook on 21 November 2016.