September 27, 2016

The Weather Company: Warm Autumn Northern Europe, Cooler South

No Strong Evidence Yet for Notably Cooler Winter This Year Relative to Last Three

For the aggregate October-December period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business is forecasting slightly below-normal temperatures across the southern mainland of Europe, with above-normal temperatures across northern latitudes.

“The transition from the strong El Nino event of last winter to the current weak La Nina event is complete, and the atmospheric response will favor positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions going forward through autumn” said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Company. “For October, this will favor a split-flow pattern with seasonally warm temperatures across northern latitudes and cooler, wetter conditions, relative to normal, for SE Europe.

“As we look ahead to winter, we don’t yet see any really strong evidence arguing for an end to the string of mild, wet, and windy winters experienced during the last three years, although the evidence does appear to suggest some colder risks in western Europe in December,” said Crawford. “The caveat is that is still quite early, and the drastic change from El Nino conditions to weak La Nina conditions may help drive a different pattern this winter. We will continue to monitor the data ahead of our October update to the winter forecast.”

For the October to December 2016 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:


  • Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal
  • UK* - Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland* - Cooler than normal


  • Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
  • UK – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal west, cooler than normal east


  • Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
  • UK – Slightly colder than normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal east, slightly colder than normal west
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal east, slightly colder than normal west

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