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August 23, 2016

UK Seasonal Outlook: Pattern of Cool-West and Warm-East Likely to Continue into Autumn

Early Hints that Winter May Be a Little Colder This Year Relative to Last Three

For the aggregate September-November period, The Weather Company, an IBM Business is forecasting slightly below-normal temperatures across the UK, France, and Iberia, with above-normal temperatures across the rest of Europe.

“The old familiar pattern of cooler-west and warmer-east has generally been in place since early July across Europe, and we expect that general pattern to continue well into autumn,” said Dr. Todd Crawford, Chief Meteorologist, The Weather Company. “This pattern has been driven by another summer of North Atlantic blocking, which may be driven by historically-low values of Arctic sea ice. As we look ahead to winter, there are some indications to suggest that this winter may be a bit colder than the previous three. While it is early, the expected large-scale northern hemispheric forcing suggests a more normal winter this year, with less of the strong westerly flow across the North Atlantic that has led to the recent warm and wet winters.”

For the September to November 2016 time period, The Weather Company is forecasting the following conditions:

September:

  • Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal, except southern coastal Norway
  • UK* - Slightly cooler than normal
  • Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal, except northern France and Benelux
  • Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal, except Iberia and western France

October:

  • Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
  • UK – Slightly cooler than normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal east, cooler than normal west

November:

  • Nordic Region – Warmer than normal
  • UK – Warmer than normal
  • Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
  • Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal, except Iberia

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